Atlantic Hurricane Season 2026: A Record-Low Activity
The absence of hurricanes is both good and not so good. Overall, it's complicated.
The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season is approaching a record: by mid-September, not a single hurricane has formed. Since 1944, when the U.S. began regular monitoring of the Atlantic, Gulf of Mexico, and Caribbean Sea, the first hurricane of the season has always appeared by September 11.
The absolute record for the latest first hurricane is still held by 1941, when a hurricane formed on September 17. It is quite likely that this record will be broken in 2026.
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The accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) in 2026 is only 7% of the norm. Among 77 seasons since 1950, this one ranks last, with only 5 relatively weak tropical storms having formed in the Atlantic.
The main reason for the absence of hurricanes is the unusually strong El Niño. El Niño enhances wind shear over the Atlantic, making it difficult for tropical cyclones to form stable structures and rapidly gain strength.
Another interesting factor is the dust from the Sahara Desert, which has spread over the main storm development area and also hinders hurricane formation.
The absence of hurricanes is more of a plus than a minus, but there are downsides to a strong El Niño as well. In particular, the lack of rainfall is already affecting the Panama Canal, and in the coming months, this weather anomaly may impact agriculture in Asia and other regions.
